Bagging and Boosting Classification Trees to Predict Churn

In this article, the authors explore the bagging and boosting classification techniques. They apply the two techniques to a customer database of an anonymous U.S. wireless telecommunications company, and both significantly improve accuracy in predicting churn. This higher predictive performance could ultimately lead to incremental profits for companies that use these methods. Furthermore, the results recommend the use of a balanced sampling scheme when predicting a rare event from large data ...

Journal of Marketing Research, 43(2), 276-286.
Lemmens, A. and Croux, C.

On the Predictive Content of Production Surveys: a Pan-European Study

For over 40 years, Business Tendency Surveys have been collected in multiple member states of the European Union. Previous research has studied the predictive content of the expectation variables included in those surveys through bivariate, within-country, Granger-causality tests. These tests have resulted in mixed conclusions. We extend previous research in various ways, as we (i) explicitly allow for cross-country influences, and (ii) do so using both bivariate and multivariate Granger-caus...

International Journal of Forecasting, 21(2), 363-375.
Lemmens, A., Croux, C. and Dekimpe, M.G.